Luxury Watch Analyst Mark Toulson sits down on Watch World with Faye to unpack whether the luxury watch market is in crisis

The Swiss watch industry is facing its most challenging period in years, and it's time we had an uncomfortable conversation about it. After hitting a record-breaking peak of 26.7 billion Swiss francs in exports in 2023, the market has contracted sharply—exports down 3% in 2024, with 1.5 million fewer watches sold. But here's the thing: within every crisis lies opportunity. And for the first time in years, buyers actually have leverage.

Faye Soteri meets Nicholas Bowman-Scargill (managing director of Fears (managing director of Fears)—the great-great-great-grandson of founder Edwin Fear.

Luxury Watches in a Perfect Storm

Let's not sugarcoat it. The industry is grappling with a perfect storm of challenges that would make even the most optimistic brand executive reach for something stronger than champagne:

US Tariffs Wreaking Havoc

The 39 percent tariffs have destabilised what was historically the largest export market. September's export numbers to the US dropped a staggering 54 percent on cash value, with the US falling from the number one market to third. Retailers front-loaded inventory before tariffs hit, and now they're sitting on stock they can't move.

China and Hong Kong's Continued Decline

China, once the golden goose of new markets, is down 26 percent. Hong Kong continues to struggle. The Asian boom that everyone banked on? It's cooling faster than a quartz movement.

The Middle Class Squeeze: Here's where it gets uncomfortable. The cost of living crisis is hitting the middle class—traditionally the bread and butter of the £3,000-£4,000 ($3,948 -$5,264 USD) watch market—hard. School fees, utilities, mortgages: something's got to give, and it's often that discretionary watch purchase.

What we're potentially witnessing is what economists cheerfully call a "plutonomy"—where the economy is driven by consumption from a small band of extremely wealthy people (hello, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg with his half-million-quid Greubel Forsey), almost to the detriment of the rest of us who are watching our weekly shopping bills double.

Luxury Watches: Crisis, Correction, or Natural Cycle?

If you attended Watches and Wonders 2024, you'd have felt the downbeat vibe. Brands weren't introducing as many pieces. Fast forward to 2025, and for the first two days, there was tremendous optimism—brands were bouncing back! Then Trump's tariffs became reality, and that optimism evaporated faster than waiting lists for steel sports models.

The reality? It's all three. A crisis in appearance, a correction in practice, and part of the natural cycle of an industry that's weathered the quartz crisis and the 2008 financial crash. This is an industry built on resilience, even if it doesn't always feel like it when you're watching the numbers tumble.

The Inventory Glut: Who's to Blame?

Here's where things get interesting. Entry-level watches saw a 16 percent drop. Did brands flood the market with accessible pieces, thinking the gold rush would continue indefinitely? Or did retailers gamble on perpetual growth?

The uncomfortable truth: everyone's guilty.

Brands pushed for mono-brand boutiques and expansive displays requiring 100 watches to "represent the brand correctly"—and yes, that word "represent" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. It's window dressing, and expensive window dressing at that. When you're running on the classic 80-20 rule (80% of turnover from 20 percent of watches), that's fine when sales are strong. But when the wheels come off? That 80% tail becomes the retailer's problem.

Retailers went along with it because during boom times, nobody cared that most of the display was just pretty props. But now, with 70 percent of suppliers cutting capital expenditure, 63 precent using short-time working hours, and over half cutting staff, reality has come knocking.

Cultural Irrelevance or Just Evolution?

Traditional watch wearing has dropped from 46% to 26% since 2020. Let's be honest: if the function of a watch is to tell time, they're obsolete. You've got the time on your phone, your car, your laptop, your iPad—everywhere.

So why buy a watch now? It's become an adornment, a status symbol, a way to express personality or at least how you'd like to be perceived. When Omega sold those Seamaster James Bond watches, they weren't selling diving equipment—they were selling the fantasy that you might just be 007.

But here's the equation people are making now: is that imagery worth remortgaging the house? Do I buy that Tudor Black Bay because it looks cool, or do I keep a roof over my head?

The Silver Lining: Buyer's Market for Luxury Watches

Remember three years ago when waiting lists were so long some people wouldn't live to see their name come up? Those days are gone. Waiting lists have evaporated, negotiation is possible, and the pre-owned market has stabilised after its correction.

What does consumer leverage look like practically?

If you're waiting for a Rolex Daytona, you might still just get the privilege of a shorter wait—nobody's discounting high-demand grail watches when they're still trading over list on the pre-owned market. But for everything else? It's worth asking your retailer what they can do on price. Why wouldn't you?

Major retailers are running serious sale activity:

Watches of Switzerland: Around 400 watches in their sale (including pre-owned), with discounts between 10-30 percent
Berrys: Approximately 300 watches classified as sale product, including Breguet, Blancpain, and 25 Hublots
Beaverbrooks: 64 items in sale, spanning Longines, TAG Heuer, and Gucci

The "never discount" dogma? It's effectively been reduced to about three or four brands that can still maintain it.

The Luxury Paradox

Here's the tension: multi-brand retailers run sales because they have stock turn targets and investment in inventory. They need to move product. But mono-brand boutiques and brand websites? They're more protective of the mystique. They rarely have "sale product" because they're all about maintaining that luxury image.

This highlights the fundamental friction between brands and retailers. Financial realities hit home in bricks-and-mortar stores in a way they don't always at brand HQ.

What's Next?

The next 12-18 months will be difficult. If the Swiss and US governments can agree on reducing tariffs, the world's largest market for Swiss watches comes back online. But what the industry really needs is something to restore global consumer confidence—stable employment, gradually increasing salaries, commodity prices that stop climbing.

The problem? That's not in the watch industry's gift. These are discretionary purchases, not essentials. Some brands may think they have god-like control over market forces, but they don't. This is a storm to weather.

The Millennial and Gen Z Factor

40% of millennials plan to buy pre-owned. Social media has become the top influence for this generation, and they're showing genuine interest in traditional timepieces—but on their terms.

The use of wearing something on your wrist isn't foreign to them (Apple Watch and fitness trackers), but a mechanical watch becomes the status symbol, the signifier of wealth and taste. And let's be honest: an Apple Watch with a cocktail dress isn't exactly the look. You'd want a Cartier.

Pre-owned watches offer an entry point—a two-year-old Breitling Navitimer is cheaper than new, but it's still the same watch with the same look. Only you need to know it was second-hand.

Practical Advice for Right Now

Do your research. Follow accounts run by genuinely passionate enthusiasts. The people with real knowledge about specific brands—like that young chap running Vintage Longines on Instagram—know more than most multi-brand retail staff ever will. Context is king. Information is king. Make informed choices.

Look beyond the obvious. Brands like Longines do fantastic watches with incredible heritage. If you want a quality Swiss timepiece and you have the money, now is actually a good time to buy. There are deals to be done on new product, and plenty in the upcoming Black Friday and winter sales.

Ask for discounts. Nothing is more attractive than a cash discount. Free straps aren't that compelling. Extended warranties? Most watches come with 5-7 years now anyway. A free future service? That has value—mechanical watch servicing is expensive. Anything that adds value is worth exploring.

The Uncomfortable Truth about the Luxury Watch Market

This episode confronts the uncomfortable realities facing luxury watches: tariffs, overproduction, shifting consumer behaviour, and the challenge of remaining culturally relevant when your primary function has been replaced by smartphones.

But here's the message: in every crisis, there's opportunity—but only for those who understand what they're looking for.

The watch industry isn't finished. Far from it. But it is being forced to reckon with some hard truths about supply, demand, and the difference between heritage mystique and actual commercial reality.

For collectors and enthusiasts? This is the most opportunity-rich environment in years. The power has shifted. Waiting lists have vanished. Discounts are available. The pre-owned market offers value.

Do your homework. Know what you want. Ask the questions. And enjoy the hunt.

Because right now? The consumer has the strength. Use it wisely.

Faye Soteri, Watch World with Faye, November 11, 2025

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