The Year of Reckoning: Unpacking 2025's Perfect Storm and What 2026 Has in Store
Luke Brewer, watches.co.uk, speaks to host Faye Soteri about the pre-owned market.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT… THe Reckoning Is Here
Can you believe it? Less than a year ago, we launched Watch World with Faye, and here we are—series three, episode one. The response has been nothing short of incredible, and I'm genuinely grateful for every listen, comment, and conversation we've had along the way.
For this milestone episode, I'm reunited with my long-term colleague and Watch World series regular, Mark Toulson—global watch industry leader, horology expert, and thoroughly lovely chap (his words, not mine). We've covered so much ground together already, from British Watchmakers Day to Watches and Wonders, but today's conversation might be our most important yet. Because 2025? Well, 2025 threw everything at the watch world.
Mark and Faye recount moments of 2025 and predict the future of what’s happening inside the luxury watch industry for the new year.
The Perfect Storm: When Tariffs Met Reality
Let's not bury the lede. The biggest story of 2025 was undoubtedly the tariffs. President Trump's announcement—39 per cent initially, later adjusted to 15 per cent—sent shockwaves through the industry precisely when everyone was gathered at Watches and Wonders in April. The mood shifted, let's say, somewhat.
What followed was a fascinating chess game. US retailers pulled forward inventory at an astonishing rate—30 to 50 per cent ahead on a monthly basis compared to 2024—trying to dodge the tariff bullet. But by autumn, after the 15per cent was confirmed in October/November, the US market had already stockpiled enough watches to see them through Christmas and beyond. The result? November's Swiss export data to the US showed a staggering 54per cent drop.
"You have a world economic situation which is a little bit tricky. You've potentially got wars going on and uncertainty there. And then you had President Trump weighing in to make life really, really, really complicated for the Swiss watch industry." — Mark Toulson
The question for 2026 isn't what happened in 2025—it's whether retailers will start replenishing their stock. We'll know when the Swiss export data starts coming through for December, January, and February. Watch this space (pun absolutely intended).
The End of the Hype Era? (Or Is It?)
Remember the post-COVID madness? When there were more flippers in the UK than at Sea Life Centre? (I'm absolutely quoting Mark on that one.) Those were the peak insanity years—2022 in particular—when watches became commodities, speculation ran rampant, and Rolex displays read "For Exhibition Only."
Fast forward to 2025, and we've witnessed what feels like a market correction. Chrono24's Chrono Pulse index shows secondhand prices have dropped 7per cent from their 2022 peak, with a 4per cent decline in the last year alone. The apex brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille—still command premiums of 13-15per cent above retail on the grey market. But mid-tier brands? We're seeing discounts of 30-40per cent on secondhand pieces.
I think we're returning to a more normal market. If COVID hadn't happened, we would have probably seen a steady progression over the years. Instead, COVID spiked the market, and now things are falling back to where a smooth curve would have naturally taken us.
Winners, Losers, and the Premiumisation of Everything
So who weathered the storm? The ultra-high-end brands—your Rolexes, Pateks, Audemars, and Richard Milles—continue to thrive because they're "reassuringly expensive" (Mark's phrase, and I love it). There's value retention, desirability, and that ineffable quality that makes people willing to wait years for the privilege of purchasing.
At the other end of the spectrum, brands delivering genuine value are holding their own. Mark's eternal love affair with the Tissot PRX continues (£640 for an 80-hour power reserve automatic—"it's not a massive amount," he says, which always makes me laugh because, well, it is a lot of money, but in watch terms...).
The squeeze is happening in the middle. Brands like IWC, Omega, Cartier, and Tudor—solid, respected names—are facing acute pressure. Which leads us to...
The Innovation Imperative: How Brands Are Adapting
If there's one bright spot in 2025's challenging landscape, it's creativity. Brands are finally realising they need to do more than just stick watches in shop windows and hope for the best.
Pricing Strategies Beyond Just Price
It's not just about the number on the tag anymore. It's the experience, the warranty, the storytelling, the gift with purchase. Because let's be honest—a watch isn't competing with other watches. It's competing with a family holiday, a new roof, or simply doing nothing and keeping your money in the bank.
Breitling's doing something clever with their Endurance Pro at £1,800 and Tag Heuer's F1—bringing people into the brand at accessible price points, then (hopefully) taking them on the journey upwards. Similarly, Breitling's Top Time B31s at £4,200-£4,500 offered genuine value: their first in-house non-chronograph chronometer movement in a three-hand model.
Geographic Diversification Gets Creative
Tudor closing their White City boutique but opening a pop-up with Time and Tide? Five years ago, we'd never have seen a brand like Tudor do that. But these collaborations with smaller, specialist retailers and discovery studios are exactly the sort of creative thinking the industry needs. It's not just about traditional bricks and mortar anymore—brands need to meet people where they are, physically and philosophically.
"There are so many things that you can buy. It's not just watches. Your competition is lifestyle, memories, holidays. It could be a new car or a new roof." — Faye Soteri
Product Hits and Misses: The 2025 Scorecard
It was a vibrant year for new products—Watches and Wonders, British Watchmakers Day, London Watch Fair, Dubai—all well-attended, all buzzing with energy. And the anniversaries! Breguet turned 250, AP hit 150, Zenith celebrated 160 years, and Gérard Perregaux's Laureato turned 50.
Mark's Hits:
Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso Tribute Monoface in 18-carat pink gold on Milanese bracelet—"beautiful, just beautiful"
Breitling Top Time B31—"there wasn't a thing I didn't like about that watch" (except maybe calling it Top Time when it's not a chronograph, the pedant)
IWC Engineer 35mm—reverting to the original 1950s 36mm sizing
Tudor Ranger Dune White—36mm, gorgeous dial, under £3K, 70-hour power reserve
Rolex Land Dweller—the watch of Watches and Wonders with that fantastic 7135 Dynapulse movement
Omega Planet Ocean redesign—sharper case, no exhibition back, no helium escape valve, still 600m water resistant
Mark's Misses:
Tag Heuer Carrera Astronomer—"ghastly" moon phase execution
Jump hour trend—Bremont Terra Nova, Cartier Guichet, Louis Vuitton Tambour Convergence: "Stop it. Just stop it from my perspective."
Faye’s Highlights:
Ulysse Nardin Diver Air—technology, aesthetics, absolutely brilliant
JLC Reverso Tribute with Milanese bracelet—always one of my favourites, and the bracelet execution was stunning
Rolex Land Dweller—surprised by how lovely it was on the wrist (there really is no substitute for metal)
Bulgari Octo Finissimo in brushed yellow gold—not an everyday watch (for me), but something really special
Christopher Ward's C12 – Loco from British Watchmakers Day
Faye Soteri, Watch World with Faye, January 14, 2025
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